By the Founders, Department of Technology | San Diego, California | November 13, 2026
America needs more data centers. That part is not in dispute. What is in dispute is who decides where they go, who pays for them, and whether anyone is looking at the whole board.
If the United States wants to remain the world leader in artificial intelligence, it has to build the computing capacity, and the power to run it. We start from that premise. But for several years, officials in both major parties, in red states and blue, have treated new data centers less like public infrastructure and more like a slot machine: pull the lever, hope for a jackpot of investment, tax revenue and ribbon-cuttings, and worry later about who covers the losses.
The question that has been asked is “how much money can be made?” The question that should be asked is “what is the best outcome for the community that has to live next to this?”
Three risks pull in three different directions. Build too fast, and we strain an aging grid and inflate a financial bubble. Build too slow, and other countries may make our lead obsolete. Ignore what AI could do to employment, and we erode the tax base a modern society runs on. No one in government is currently accountable for all three at once.
The casino logic
Thirty-eight states offer tax incentives to data centers, and at least 28 of them considered scaling those incentives back this year, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. At least ten states forgo more than $100 million a year in these breaks, with Texas and Virginia each losing as much as $1 billion annually, according to Good Jobs First, as reported by Broadband Breakfast.
In Ohio, Policy Matters Ohio reports the break cost state and local governments about $2 billion last year, far more than the state had forecast, which led Republican Governor Mike DeWine, who had previously vetoed a repeal, to order a temporary pause.
The backpedaling is bipartisan, which is exactly the point. In Virginia, 21 Democrats and seven Republicans in the state Senate voted to curtail a 5.3% tax break. Kentucky’s Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, has called for ending his state’s incentives, and Ohio, Arizona, Nebraska and Illinois have paused theirs.
When lawmakers of both parties are reversing course, the original approach was not a partisan mistake. It was a structural one: the deals were made one project at a time, often in secret (as we noted in our open letter, 25 of 31 Virginia local governments involved in data center development had signed NDAs), and no one owned the cumulative consequences.
Build too fast: the grid and the bubble
Our electrical grid is where the cost of speed shows up first. In PJM, the nation’s largest grid market, wholesale power prices jumped almost 76% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, and the market monitor said the price effects on customers were very large and not reversible, according to E&E News.
Capacity auction prices rose roughly tenfold in two years, from about $29 to $329 per megawatt-day, and the December 2025 auction fell short of its reliability target for the first time, per one analysis of PJM’s results. Ordinary ratepayers are paying for capacity built to serve some of the wealthiest companies in the world.
Then there is the money behind the buildout. Hyperscalers will spend about $750 billion this year, and they are borrowing heavily to do it, while economy-wide statistics still show little or no productivity growth from AI. Jefferies warns that AI investment was the main driver of U.S. economic growth last year after consumer spending, so a sudden collapse would leave the economy exposed. And The Economist notes that more than half the spending has gone to servers and specialized chips that become obsolete within a few years. A technology can be transformative and still be overbuilt. If that happens, the stranded assets and the unpaid debts will not stay on Wall Street.
Build too slow: the electron gap
The opposite risk is just as real. The United States leads in advanced chips but is short on power, while China has the power and is short on chips. BloombergNEF estimates China will add more than six times as much generating capacity as the U.S. over the next five years. Morgan Stanley has forecast a 44-gigawatt shortfall for U.S. data centers within three years, roughly the summertime capacity of New York State. According to calculations reported by The Washington Post, Chinese data centers pay about a third of what American ones do for electricity.
We cannot answer that gap with moratoriums and lawsuits alone, and we cannot answer it with secrecy and subsidies either. Speed that costs public trust is not speed. As voters showed on November 3, when they favored limits in 40 of 41 local data center measures, communities will stop projects they feel were done to them rather than with them.
Ignore the jobs: the tax base
The third risk is the quietest. A RAND analysis found that 84 percent of federal revenue in 2024 came from individual and payroll taxes, both collected from labor income. Because income is concentrated in high-paid white-collar jobs, replacing those roles with AI would hit revenue harder than the headcount suggests, and higher corporate profits would not make up the difference unless corporate tax rates roughly doubled.
The same logic applies closer to home. New York City’s Comptroller built five AI scenarios for the city’s finances, put a combined 50 percent probability on the three with worse outcomes for jobs, growth or tax revenue, and recommended building a reserve fund to 16 percent of annual tax revenue. Every county and state should be asking the same question before the layoffs arrive, not after.
Why we need elected technology leaders
Look at who currently holds a piece of this problem. Utility commissions watch rates. Economic development offices watch ribbon-cuttings. Treasurers watch revenue. Each sees one slice, and none is answerable to voters for the combination. That is how a state can win a data center, lose a billion dollars a year, raise its residents’ power bills and weaken its future tax base, all through decisions that each looked reasonable on its own.
We are calling for elected technology leaders at the local, county, state and federal levels, with one job: to weigh speed, grid capacity, public cost and long-term fiscal health together, in public. In practice that means:
- Public plans before approvals. Grid, water and fiscal impact published before a project is approved, not after.
- No secret deals. Public bodies should not sign NDAs that keep residents from learning what their own governments agreed to.
- Large users pay for what they trigger. Grid upgrades and capacity costs assigned to the facilities that cause them, not spread across households.
- Incentives with accountability. Tax breaks tied to measurable jobs and revenue, with clawbacks if the promises are not met.
- Fiscal readiness for AI displacement. Scenario planning and reserves at every level of government.
They should be elected, not appointed, because the tradeoffs here are value judgments about whose power bills, whose land and whose jobs, and those belong to voters. And they are needed now because the contracts are being signed now.
The case against our case
A fair reading includes the strongest objections.
- Incentives may be what brings projects at all. The Data Center Coalition’s Dan Diorio argues that revenue estimates overlook the chance a project would never have been built without exemptions, and notes that states with the most growth, including Virginia, Texas and Pennsylvania, offer them, while Colorado, which does not, has less (S&P Global).
- The electron gap may be overstated. The Brookings Institution cautions that no one knows how many data centers will be needed or how fast chips will become more efficient, and that worries from builders are not the same as geopolitical shocks (Brookings).
- Job forecasts are uncertain. One UK think tank’s scenarios range from eight million jobs lost to none at all (IPPR), and New York’s Comptroller itself says it is hard to tie current trends to AI with certainty.
- Another elected office is another layer. Critics may reasonably prefer strengthening utility regulators and legislatures over creating new positions. Our answer is that each existing body owns only a slice, but that is a debate worth having in public.
Start the conversation
Neither the casino nor the moratorium is a plan. The country needs people whose job it is to build enough, build in the right places, make the builders pay their share, and prepare for what comes after. That job does not exist yet. We are asking every candidate and every sitting official, of every party, to start the discussion about creating it, at department.technology/.